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南京医科大学学报（社会科学版）京医科大学学报（社会科学版） 第5期 总第130期
南
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Journal of Nanjing Medical University（Social Sciences）of Nanjing Medical University（Social Sciences） 2025年10月
Journal

Coupling coordination and predictive analysis of healthcare service

capacity and regional economic development in Anhui Province

WANG Jie，ZHANG Jing
School of Pharmaceutical Economics and Management，Anhui University of Chinese Medicine，Hefei 230012，China
Abstract：Based on the panel data of Anhui Province and its three major regions of southern，northern and
central Anhui from 2016 to 2023，this study used a coupling coordination model and combination forecasting to
evaluate the coupling coordination status of healthcare and economic development during the 13th Five⁃Year
Plan period，while predicting the evolutionary trends for the 14th Five⁃Year Plan and 15th Five⁃Year Plan
period. Through the construction of an evaluation system comprising 17 indicators，with the weight determined
by the entropy method，and the coupling coordination degree of three periods is calculated. The key indicators
from 2024 to 2030 were forecasted by combining the Grey GM（1，1）model and the ARIMA model. The results
show that the healthcare service capacity in Anhui Province has long lagged behind the regional economic
growth and the coupling coordination degree exhibits a pattern of initial increase followed by decline，indicating
insufficient long ⁃ term sustainability that requiring further strengthened. Significant disparities existed across
regions，with Central Anhui showing a clear advantage while the northern and southern regions lag behind.
Based on these，it is vital to establish a dynamic policy guarantee system，improve the public health emergency
management system，promote regional cooperation for a provincial linkage mechanism. At the same time，the
study recommends innovating the investment mechanism while deepening the system reform to promote the
coordinated development of healthcare services and economy.
Key words：healthcare service capacity；regional economy；coupling coordination degree；Grey forecast
model