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第41卷第1期 南京医科大学学报（自然科学版）
2021年1月 Journal of Nanjing Medical University（Natural Sciences） · 59 ·

·临床研究·

差分自回归移动平均模型在南通市手足口病疫情预测中的应用

练 维 ，魏 叶 ，韩颖颖 ，帅小博 4*
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南通市疾病预防控制中心科研质量管理科，急性传染病防制科，慢性非传染病防制科，江苏 南通 226007；南通市崇川区
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疾病预防控制中心检验科，江苏 南通 226000

［摘 要］ 目的：应用差分自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）预测南通市手足口病疫情趋势。方法：以2010年1月—2019年6月
南通市手足口病分月报告病例数据为基础，构建符合季节性时间序列的ARIMA（p，d，q）×（P，D，Q） S模型，用2019年7—12月全
市手足口病月发病率为验证数据进行验证，检验模型的预测效果。结果：2010—2019年南通市共报告手足口病90 766例，年
平均发病率为124.36/10万，疫情有明显季节性，呈双峰特征，为夏季（5、6、7月）高峰和冬季（11、12月）次高峰；近年来南通市手
足口病的病原谱以其他肠道病毒为主；利用ARIMA（1，0，1）（1，1，1） 12模型，预测2019年7—12月手足口病发病率分别为7.08/
10 万、1.81/10 万、3.74/10 万、7.21/10 万、10.71/10 万和 11.29/10 万，与实际发病率相比，两者差异无统计学意义（Z=0.48，P=
0.63）。结论：差分自回归移动平均模型能较好地预测手足口病的发病趋势，可用于短期的预警监测。
［关键词］ 差分自回归移动平均模型；手足口病；预测
［中图分类号］ R181.8 ［文献标志码］ A ［文章编号］ 1007⁃4368（2021）01⁃059⁃06
doi：10.7655/NYDXBNS20210111

Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model in prediction of hand⁃foot⁃
mouth disease epidemic in Nantong

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LIAN Wei ，WEI Ye ，HAN Yingying ，SHUAI Xiaobo 4*
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1 Department of Research and Quality Management，Department of Acute Communicable Diseases Control and
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Prevention，Department of Chronic Non⁃communicable Diseases Control and Prevention，Nantong Center for Disease
Control and Prevention，Nantong 226007；Department of Clinical Laboratory，Chongchuan District Center for
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Disease Control and Prevention of Nantong City，Nantong 226000，China
［Abstract］ Objective：To predict the trend of hand⁃foot⁃mouth disease in Nantong by using the autoregressive integrated moving
average（ARIMA）model. Methods：Based on the monthly reported case data of hand⁃foot⁃mouth disease in Nantong from January 2010
to June 2019，a ARIMA（p，d，q）×（P，D，Q） S model was constructed in accordance with the seasonal time series. The monthly
incidence of hand⁃foot⁃mouth disease in the city from July to December 2019 was used as verification data to test the prediction effect
of the model. Results：A total of 90 766 cases of hand⁃foot⁃mouth disease were reported in Nantong from 2010 to 2019. The average
annual incidence rate was 124.36/100 000. The epidemic showed seasonality of incidence with two peaks. One was the summer peak
and the other was the winter sub⁃peak. In recent years，the pathogenic spectrum of hand⁃foot⁃mouth disease in Nantong was dominated
by other intestinal viruses. Using the ARIMA（1，0，1）（1，1，1） 12 model，the incidence of hand ⁃ foot ⁃ mouth disease from July to
December 2019 wss predicted to be 7.08/100 000，1.81/100 000，3.74/100 000，7.21/100 000，10.71/100 000，and 11.29/100 000.
Compared with the actual incidence，there was no significant difference. Conclusion：The autoregressive integrated moving average
model can better predict the incidence of hand⁃foot⁃mouth disease，and can be used for short⁃term early warning and monitoring.
［Key words］ ARIMA model；hand⁃foot⁃mouth disease；prediction
［J Nanjing Med Univ，2021，41（01）：059⁃064］

［基金项目］ 南通市卫计委青年基金项目（WQ2015073）
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通信作者（Corresponding author），E⁃mail：68175632@qq.com