Page 124 - 南京医科大学学报自然科学版

南京医科大学学报（自然科学版） 第41卷第2期
·274 · Journal of Nanjing Medical University（Natural Sciences） 2021年2月

·预防医学·

2009—2019 年常州市武进区 30~69 岁居民主要慢性病死亡特

征的定量研究

强德仁 ，顾建新 ，石素逸 ，许敏锐 ，宗 菁 ，杨佳成 ，靳光付 2
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常州市武进区疾病预防控制中心，江苏 常州 213164；南京医科大学公共卫生学院，江苏 南京 211166
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［摘 要］ 目的：分析2009—2019年常州市武进区30~69岁居民4类慢性病死亡特征，为实现“健康中国2030”早死概率下降
目标提供依据。方法：计算30~69岁居民4类慢性病的死亡率和过早死亡率，采用年度变化百分比描述变化趋势，使用差别分
解分析法分析人口和非人口因素对死亡率的影响。结果：30~69岁居民主要慢性病的粗死亡率以年度变化百分比（average an⁃
nual percent change，APC）-2.01%（P＜0.001）的速度下降，恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病的标化死亡率分别以
APC -3.62%（P＜0.001）、-3.80%（P＜0.001）、-6.61%（P=0.004）的速度下降，而糖尿病的标化死亡率则逐年上升（APC 4.19%，
P=0.022）。主要慢性病早死概率由12.32%下降到8.91%，但糖尿病的早死概率却略有上升趋势。非人口因素导致的粗死亡率
下降作用明显超过人口老化因素产生的上升作用，而对于男性糖尿病的粗死亡率，人口因素和非人口因素均促进其上升。结
论：常州市武进区30~69岁居民主要慢性病早死概率总体呈下降趋势，但主要慢性病的防控形势依然严峻，糖尿病的防控任务
尤为重要。
［关键词］ 慢性病；死亡率；年度变化百分比；早死概率；差别分解分析
［中图分类号］ R18 ［文献标志码］ A ［文章编号］ 1007⁃4368（2021）02⁃274⁃06
doi：10.7655/NYDXBNS20210224

A quantitative study of death caused by main chronic noncommunicable diseases among
residents between 30 and 69 years old in Wujin district of Changzhou during 2009—2019
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QIANG Deren ，GU Jianxing ，SHI Suyi ，XU Minrui ，ZONG Jing ，YANG Jiacheng ，JIN Guangfu
Wujin District Center for Disease Prevention and Control，Changzhou 213164；School of Public Health，Nanjing
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Medical University，Nanjing 211166，China

［Abstract］ Objective：This stndy aims to explore the death characteristics and trends caused by four main chronic
noncommunicable diseases（NCDs）among residents between 30 and 69 years old in Wujin District of Changzhou from 2009 to 2019，to
provide suggestions and basis for realizing the goal of decreasing the probability of premature mortality of“Health China 2030”major
NCDs in this region. Methods：The mortality rate of four major NCDs were analyzed for residents between 30 and 69 years old，the
average annual percent change（APC）was used to describe the change trend，and premature mortality probability of major NCDs was
calculated on the basis of the life table，the effects of demographic factors and non⁃demographic factors were analyzed by differential
decomposition analysis. Results：In 2009—2019，the crude mortality rate of major NCDs among residents between 30 and 69 years old
decreased at the rate of APC=-2.01%（P＜0.001）. The standardized mortality of malignant tumor，cardio⁃cerebrovascular disease，
chronic respiratory diseases going down with APC=- 3.62%（P＜0.001），APC=- 3.80%（P＜0.001），APC=- 6.61%（P=0.004）
respectively，while the standardized mortality of diabetes increased year by year（APC=4.19%，P=0.022）. The premature mortality of
major NCDs decreased from 12.32% in 2009 to 8.91% in 2019，while the premature mortality of diabetes showed a slightly upward
trend. The decrease of crude mortality caused by non⁃demographic factors in the four major NCDs of residents aged 30 to 69 obviously
outweighed the increase of crude mortality caused by demographic factors，but for the change of male diabetes mortality，both
demographic factors and non⁃ demographic factors contributed to the increase of mortality. Conclusion：The premature mortality of

［基金项目］ 国家重点研发计划（2017YFC0907002）；常州市武进区科技支撑计划——社会发展（WS201829）
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通信作者（Corresponding author），E⁃mail： wujinncd@163.com