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A B
0.9
0.9
1⁃year OS rate 0.7 1⁃year OS rate 0.7
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
Actual 0.5 Actual 0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2 0.2
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Nomogram⁃predicted Nomogram⁃predicted
probability of 5⁃year OS probability of 5⁃year OS
C D
0.7
0.6 0.6
3⁃year OS rate 0.4 3⁃year OS rate 0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
Actual 0.2 Actual 0.2
0.1
0.1
0 0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Nomogram⁃predicted Nomogram⁃predicted
probability of 5⁃year OS probability of 5⁃year OS
E F
0.6
5⁃year OS rate 0.5 5⁃year OS rate 0.5
0.4
0.4

Actual 0.3 Actual 0.3
0.2
0.2
.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Nomogram⁃predicted Nomogram⁃predicted
probability of 5⁃year OS probability of 5⁃year OS
A：The 1⁃year survival correction curve for CC patients in the training set（n=358 . d=266，P=5 115 subjects per group）. B：The 1⁃year survival
correction curve for CC patients in the validation set（n=152，d=112，P=550 subjects per group）. C：The 3⁃year survival correction curve for CC patients
in the training set（n=358，d=266，P=5 115 subjects per group）. D：The 3⁃year survival correction curve for CC patients in the validation set（n=152 ，
d=112 ，P=550 subjects per group）. E：The 5⁃year survival correction curve for CC patients in the training set（n=358，d=266，P=5 115 subjects per
group）. F：The 5⁃year survival correction curve for CC patients in the validation set（n=152，d=112，P=550 subjects per group）. Gray：ideal X⁃resam⁃
pling optimism added，B=1000，Based on observed⁃predicted. n：case number；d：number of terminal events；P：parameter number.
图4 CC患者1年、3年、5年生存率校正曲线
Figure 4 Calibration curves of 1⁃year，3⁃year，and 5⁃year survival in patients with CC

一定的选择偏倚，证据级别较低，需要进行多中心、 atic colloid carcinoma presenting as a duodenal fistula［J］.
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