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第6期 总第125期 南 ·
南京医科大学学报（社会科学版）京医科大学学报（社会科学版）
2024年12月 Journal of Nanjing Medical University（Social Sciences）of Nanjing Medical University（Social Sciences） · 573
Journal

The forecast and influencing factors of total health expenditure during

the 14th Five⁃Year Plan of Hunan Province

ZHONG Guangjin，DING Haifeng
College of Public Administration and Law，Hunan Agricultural University，Changsha 410128，China
Abstract：Based on the total health expenditure and related data of Hunan Province from 2010 to 2022，
the article conducts a descriptive analysis of the total health expenditure and its financing structure while
utilizing the GM（1，1）model and grey relation analysis to predict the total health expenditure during the 14th
Five⁃Year Plan period along with an in⁃depth discussion of its influencing factors. The results indicate that the
total expenditure of health and its ratio to GDP in Hunan Province are generally on the rise，and the ratio of
total cost of health to GDP（7.23%）is expected to be close to the threshold value of the sustainability of total
cost of health（8%）. In terms of the financing structure，the proportion of personal health expenditure is still
relatively high. Regarding the influencing factors，the GDP per capita and the per capita disposable income of
urban and rural residents are the primary factors contributing to the growth of total health expenditure，
followed by the total number of visits to health institutions，hospital utilization rate，the number of health
institutions，the aging rate and the level of urbanization. The impact of government financial capacity and
health inputs on the total health expenditure is inelastic. The sustainability of health financing in Hunan
Province faces significant challenges，and the rise in healthcare expenditure should be reasonably controlled
from both the supply and demand sides.
Key words：total health expenses；funding structure；Grey system theory；predictive research；influence
factor