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Journal of Nanjing Medical University（Social Sciences）of Nanjing Medical University（Social Sciences） 2026年2月
Journal
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［19］VIRGOLINO A，COSTA J，SANTOS O，et al. Lost in （本文编辑：姜 鑫）

Longitudinal study on the development trajectory and influencing

factors of chronic diseases among menopausal women

1 1 2
CHEN Xiaoting ，WEN Yong ，ZONG Zhanhong
1. School of Science，2. School of Sociology and Population Studies，Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications，
Nanjing 210023，China
Abstract：To identify the development trajectory of chronic diseases among menopausal women and its
influencing factors，and to provide a reference basis for the health management of menopausal women，this
study utilized five waves of data spanning 2011-2020 from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study
（CHARLS）. A total of 3 508 women aged 40-54 at baseline were selected as subjects. Group⁃based trajectory
modeling （GBTM） was employed to identify their chronic disease developmental trajectories，with further
subgroup analysis conducted by birth cohort. Results indicated three types of developmental trajectories of
chronic diseases among menopausal women: low ⁃ level slow growth （21.3%），moderate ⁃ level steady growth
（60.6%），and high⁃level rapid growth（18.1%）. Trajectory analysis classified by birth cohort further revealed the
same three categories. Compared to the 1957-1961 birth cohort，the 1962-1971 cohort had a higher proportion
in the low⁃level group and a lower proportion in the high⁃level group. Logistic regression analysis indicated that
menopausal status，sleep，smoking，and employment status were the main influencing factors for trajectory
classification. These findings revealed heterogeneity in the developmental trajectories of chronic diseases among
menopausal women. Therefore，the study proposes implementing stratified interventions alongside strengthening
health education on chronic disease prevention and control，and providing personalized health services to facilitate
a smooth menopausal transition.
Key words：menopausal women；chronic diseases；influencing factors； group⁃based trajectory model